Flash Flood Watch Posted Thursday Parts of NJ Heat Humidity For One More Day
We are seeing Flash Flood Watches going up for later Thursday. The areas in Western New Jersey (South of Route 78)m Southeastern Pennsylvania south to the Delmarva Peninsula as well as the Eastern half of Maryland south into Northeast Virginia. This area got hit hard by Izaias with rains of 6 inches or more in much of this area and the ground remains saturated. The flooding threshold is low. We also have heat advisories up for areas from Northeast NJ to Southern New England but to me that speaks to the obvious that it is August, it is hot, and it is humid. This is not exactly a groundbreaking development. We have one more day of this nonsense before we get into a wetter pattern and that should bring temperatures down. Humidity levels however will remain high.
SATELLITE
REGIONAL RADAR
Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the regional radar and occasionally they make an appearance on the local radars. For most of you tonight, there are no issues other than it is going to be another very warm and humid night. Lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Wednesday is a wash rinse repeat of today though a cold front will be moving through before it stalls out nearby. We will throw in the chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around or just over 90. This should be it for 90 degree temperatures this week.
The pattern turns cloudy and wetter for Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and points south. A stalled front, a high to the north, a developing easterly flow, and a couple of waves of low pressure will bring some rain or at least rounds of showers beginning Thursday and lasting into the weekend. It won’t rain straight through but when it doesn’t rain clouds and humidity will be an issue. Thursday highs could reach into the 80s but after that it will be upper 70s and lower 80s Friday and perhaps mostly 70s Saturday. That might last into Sunday since this stalled front doesn’t make much eastward progress.
You can see the upper trough to the west keeps us in a moist southerly flow through the weekend. There is another trough dropping into the Great Lakes behind this one and that could perhaps prolong our wet pattern into the start of next week.
TROPCIAL DEPRESSION 11 FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
This season everything seems to want to spin up in the tropics. I’m not going to get too worked up over Tropical Depression 11 since it is way out in the Atlantic and everything in the upper air suggests that it should strengthen to a tropical storm. Then it runs into a hostile environment as it heads west northwestward. There has been a tendency for these systems to outperform this season so i will be keeping a side eye on this.
There are two major issues with Tropical Depression 11. The first is there is a lot of dry air all around the depression though it seems to be wrapped up in its own environment which is moist. It might be able to over come that for awhile.
The other issue more imposing and that is the development of strong southwest winds in the upper atmosphere across the Caribbean and over the system by the time it reaches north of the Leeward Islands. This hostile environment argues for a gradual weakening and the system may fall apart under the pressure of these winds. In the meantime there is a decent environment for strengthening and we should see this reach tropical storm strength and get another name out of the way. It would be the earliest J storm on record adding to the other earliest storms on record we have seen this year. We remain ahead of the dizzying storm pace of 2005 which produced 27 named storms.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
