FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY, NYC, HUDSON VALLEY

FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY, NYC, HUDSON VALLEY

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEW JERSEY, NYC,

HUDSON VALLEY, & SW CONNECTICUT

After yesterday’s and last night’s rainfall amounts that exceeded 6 inches over parts of New Jersey and up to 4 inches over parts of the Hudson Valley, we have a FLASH FLOOD WATCH posted this morning

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD
  AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN
  BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...
  HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND
  WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS
  (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN
  QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND
  (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS
  AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THE LOCAL AREA WILL LIE JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TODAY IN A
  MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS
  MORNING COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH SOME EMBEDDED
  THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...INCREASING INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION
  WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON HAS
  THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
  DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
  FLOODING.

In addition we have a FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PARTS OF OCEAN & BURLINGTON COUNTIES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  EAST CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 703 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF
  RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
  SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  TOMS RIVER...BEACHWOOD...PLEASANT PLAINS...WHITING...
  CEDAR GLEN LAKES...HOLIDAY CITY SOUTH...HOLIDAY CITY-BERKELEY...
  PINE RIDGE AT CRESTWOOD...OLD HALFWAY...BAMBER LAKE...
  LEISURE VILLAGE WEST-PINE LAKE PARK...LEISURE VILLAGE EAST...
  SOUTH TOMS RIVER...ISLAND HEIGHTS...CRESTWOOD VILLAGE...
  HOLIDAY HEIGHTS...HOLIDAY CITY AND SILVER RIDGE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

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Radars this morning show last night’s rain has moved well to the north however new downpours developed across Central New Jersey this morning. Over the course of the day weather models show different outcomes regarding downpours and where they develop. Some favor the Hudson Valley while others show heavy rains over the Hudson Valley and New Jersey as well. Given we are north of a warm front I think the best approach is to just watch the radars. Weather models keep changing the profile of the heavy rains from run to run. Short term models remain highly volatile and unreliable. Downpours are capable of producing a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain if they sit around long enough. After the rains of the last 24 hours, it won’t take much to cause some flooding.

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