Flash Flood Watch Eastern Pennsylvania New Jersey Heavy Rain Arrives Tonight
Showers Thunderstorms Severe Weather Risk Saturday
We are setting up for a round of heavy rain late today and overnight. Low pressure is moving across the Tennessee Valley and will reform in Eastern Virginia late today into this evening before moving northward up the coast. Flash flood watches are posted covering Eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Watches extend southward into Maryland, Delaware and Virginia.
Rainfall forecasts will be in the range of 1.50 to 2 inches or so. it comes on top of above average rainfall over the last couple of weeks so the ground is saturated. We expect to see some local flooding especially in areas near rivers and streams that already are running on the high side. Also there may be some thunderstorms in the mix and we are at a time of year where convection can raise local forecast amounts by 50 to 100 percent or more.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
We are seeing low pressure spreading clouds and rain across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley based on satellite and radar loops. Rain comes in tonight with the heaviest rain falling along and west of the low track which will be just inland of the coast and then moving into Southern New England Saturday morning.
Once the low goes by we could see some sunshine break out from Saturday mid morning to mid afternoon. Daytime heating, an unstable atmosphere, and an upper trough swinging east across New York state and Pennsylvania will set off showers and thunderstorm Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible and the Storm Prediction Center is indicating a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.
We think there is a chance that the Storm Prediction Center extends the risk zone further north into the Hudson Valley and Southern New England so we will be monitoring their outlooks closely. As far as temperatures go, today’s highs will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees in some warm spots. Saturday highs will be in the low and middle 70s. Sunday we will see a return to some sunshine and highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to some lower 70s. Next week should generally see temperatures in an uptrend however there could be some cloud issues Tuesday as an upper low off the Southeast US coast while weak, meanders northward Tuesday and that could mean some cloud issues from off the ocean Tuesday into Wednesday.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.