Flash Flood Watch Continues New Jersey to Virginia
We are stuck with a frontal boundary on top of us which has put us in lots of clouds. Little ripples moving along the front are triggering off some heavy thunderstorms. We have already seen a number of flash flood warnings inside the flash flood watch area and there have even been a couple just outside the watch zone. We won’t be going anywhere today with this zone on top of us. If the sun can manage to break through the clouds it will add to the instability. Look for some clusters of heavy thunderstorms to develop as we go through the rest of the day. Obviously some of the rain in these storms will be very heavy. Areas in the watch zone have a low threshold for flooding which is why the watches are up for some areas and not for others.
The biggest concentration of thunderstorms right now seems to be in the Washington DC/ Baltimore corridor and also another culster seems to be ramped up between Trenton and NYC at midday. We will probably see some other areas pop up this afternoon and evening.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
What we will be waiting for are a stronger wave to develop on the front and high pressure building in Southeastern Canada to get the frontal boundary to shift east. That should come tonight and Friday as a low develops to the south and then heads out to the east, allowing the high to suppress and build southward.
Temperatures today will be a little lower with all the cloud cover around so highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s at best and mostly in the 70s where rain is a bigger issue this afternoon. Friday’s highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lots of clouds.
Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days…sort of. The onshore flow means there will be cloud issues which will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Also there will be some rain coming in from the west as well as coming up from the south during Saturday afternoon and evening. A second wave of low pressure is going to headed east across the Central Appalachians and off the Delaware coast on Sunday. This brings some rain eastward but there are large disagreements in the models regarding timing and how much. The NAM model for example has no rain at all out of this while the GFS has a rather substantial amount of rain. For now we will go with some showers Saturday night and on Sunday and revisit this later today. Once the wave moves out on Sunday weather conditions should improve for the first part of next week.
A deep upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast this weekend and then lift northeastward into Southeastern Canada. There might be a bit of humidity relief during the first half of next week if the GFS has its way. Fingers crossed on this since this model has gone down this road before unsuccessfully.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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