Fiona Landfalls Nova Scotia Ian Caribbean Heading for Gulf of Mexico
Locally Showers Arrive Sunday
The first weekend of Autumn is underway and we are going have a mostly nice day with mostly to partly sunny skies. The core of the cool air mass is right along the coast today so our winds will be easing and temperatures will come up a bit from yesterday. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Then we head into tonight with developing cloud cover and lows generally in the 40s inland and 50 to 55 along the coast and in warmer urban settings.
Sunday brings along the next cold front and south southwest flow ahead of it. That should allow temperatuers back into the mid and upper 70s for highs. We might see the odd spot or two close to 80 and that would be in South Jersey and points south while shore locations like Long Island and Southern and Southeastern New England will top in the lower 70s.
We could some sunshine early on but late in the day we run the risk for showers and thunderstorms and the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. I’m not sure that everyone will see some showers out of this front so we will put the risk out there and then we will rely on radars to tell us what is going on later Sunday. It is conceivable that much of the day could be rain free for some.
This is going to be a dry and mostly cool week ahead with below average temperatures. A strong flow from Canada will drive rather far south in the Eastern US. This actually will bring dry air all the way down to the Gulf Coast. All this is going on while Tropical Storm Ian which is developing in the Caribbean this weekend and will eventually respond to a weakness in the jet stream over the Gulf States.
The risk is growing for a hurricane landfall on the west coast of Florida for the middle of next week and possibly as a major hurricane. Longer term questions remain about whether Ian could find its way up the East Coast in some form or another. Right now it remains too far out in the long range to speculate on a forecast with any kind of confidence. So we will just enjoy the Autumn weather for the week ahead. Clouds and some sun will be around Monday with the risk for an inland shower or two.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s Monday. Tuesday brings another trough swinging around in the strong get stream so another day of clouds and sun and the risk for a passing shower or two inland. Highs upper 60s and lower 70s. Wednesday and Thursday will likely be in the coolest days this week with some sunshine each day and highs in the 60s.
HURRICANE FIONA INLAND OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
It isn’t official yet but Hurricane Fiona may have become the strongest storm ever to make landfall in Atlantic Canada. The lowest pressure that I observed was 27.60 (934mb) and several stations in Eastern Nova Scotia had pressures down between 27.60 and 27.70 inches. Fiona is going to continue to produce hurricane force winds into this afternoon until the center gets far enough north when it will start to weaken. Hurricane force winds are also occurring along the southwest and west coast of Newfoundland.
TROPICAL STORM IAN STRENGTHENING IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
Tropical Storm Ian continues to get better organized in the Central Caribbean and is moving westward. Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watch is in effect fo Jamaica. The main threat for Jamaica will be heavy rains as they will be in the east side of the storm while we could see a pass close to the Cayman Islands early Monday and at that point it could be at hurricane strength. Next stop will be Western Cuba Monday night into early Tuesday and then a possible landfall along the Florida west coast as a major hurricane Wednesday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.