European Weather Model Goes Blocky & Cold Long Range
European Weather Model Goes Blocky & Cold Long Range
One of the things that I like about this time of year is watching patterns evolve and change over time. They often can prove useful in figuring out how the rest of the autumn and early winter might set up. One of the things I noticed is that the Arctic Oscillation which measures the potential for the southward displacement of cold air in the Arctic has been negative all month long and is forecast to go even more negative. This would favor the development of a colder weather pattern across the Eastern US. Also the North Atlantic Oscillation which watches the same concept from the northeast in Greenland and nearby has been only slightly positive to neutral all month long and is forecast to go negative as well for the end of the month.
The European weather model today and the GFS weather model to a certain extent pounce on all this later in the period by developing a rather cold pattern across the Northeast & Midwest. The European develops a strong blocking high over and just east of Greenland which pins a vortex in Eastern Canada.
Now what this means for the long term obviously remains to be seen. The European model is suggesting now that the weekend coming up will basically be cold and dry as this vortex in Eastern Canada develops stronger than the other models and overwhelms the northeast with colder dry air. We have to wait and see if this plays out. Afterwards the question of the developing upper high is something to watch. Models usually love to do things like this only to back off over time. The reason I think this is important is that this could be the first solid sign of the semi-permanent ridge in the Southeast US breaking down and a setup of a different longer term pattern. In weak El Nino/La Nina years a negative AO/NAO index in October is a sign of a colder than average winter setting up. Obviously this is just one of many indicators to watch. Last year this did not work as the El Nino trumped everything but it might work this year all other things being equal. If this signal is correct, it may mean this last gasp of summer we are seeing this week, will indeed be the last gasp of summer.
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