European Weather Model Colder & Further East

European Weather Model Colder & Further East

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European Model Colder & Further East

While we have the NAM model from earlier today offering the idea of a coast hugger and rain sweeping inland cutting snow amounts down, we also now have today’s European model offering a colder solution that would mean snow for just about everyone but it also tracks the surface storm further east which would cut the amounts down! The issue is how the models handle 2 separate streams of energy and how much phasing occurs between the two.

NAM VS EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL ON UPPER AIR PHASING

snow

 The question of phasing and how this gets resolved is huge. The NAM model upper air phases the two streams which brings the storm center right on the coast. Today’s European keeps both streams separate which keeps things much colder but it also cuts back on total snowfall. The European model literally would mean a 9 to 12 inch snowfall over a much larger area and would keep it all snow for coastal areas. The European effectively caps the upside here if the surface low tracks to the east.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL TUESDAY MORNING

snow

All three tracks including the Euro produce snow but you can see the extreme nature of the models and again this all depends on how much phasing occurs or doesn’t occur. Splitting the difference and you come up with my current snow forecast.

snow

For now nothing changes as we have many weather model runs to go. As always the situation with these things is very fluid. The uncertainty as always remains very highs and confidence low.

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