I had this feeling today that the European was going to go in reverse. Im not suggesting that it is right in its approach since the gfs is still fairly flat looking and further east (though it was a little more north than last night), let us examine what is happening.


If you look off the Middle Atlantic Coast you can see what is happening. The European is closing off (to some degree) an upper air low which results in a fairly well developed surface low off the coast but it winds up being tucked in a little closer and certainly a lot closer that what some of the other models suggest.



Now I laid the GFS side by side above with the European for the same time frame which is 8am Saturday and you can see the huge difference in the upper flow. The European wants to phase the 2 streams to some degree making a rather dynamic looking system (for this time of year) but the GFS says stays flat and separate and moves right along and done.



The European does move things along but bear in mind that even with what this is showing, in terms of rain even the European would bring rain to southern and coastal NJ and Eastern Long Island and Southern New England while inland areas would be dry. The question is which model has the right handle on this. For now the GFS has been insisting that nothing is the outcome and even if you compromise the 2 models you still come up with nothing for the most part and a decent weekend although clouds could be an issue for awhile. Marine conditions this weekend won’t be good at all under either scenario. For the time being i continue to side against any rain for the vast majority of the area but the European does give food for thought. In either instance Friday and Saturday are likely to be cool days between any developing cloud cover and a gusty northeast wind especially at the coast. More on this as we move along into the evening and see if the GFS offers any clues. I will also ask the question before it is this would not be a tropical storm.