European Model Flashing Storm Signals
Today’s European Model is also flashing storm signals as we start to move toward the first couple of weeks of January. The weather pattern change remains evident on all the models so we know where we are going. The question, and its a big one, is how all the parts of this puzzle line up because you can have all this happen and if the puzzle pieces line up in certain ways, they will produce all sorts of different outcomes.
Today’s European model continues the trend of the last few days. One of the interesting things in the short range that caught my eye might be something to bear in mind from a forecast standpoint down the road. Sunday night into Tuesday we have a shot of cold air coming. The European model has been insistent that this cold shot was real while the Gfs weather model had the same idea but a weaker vortex in Eastern Canada. The GFS has now come around to the European’s view. Monday & Tuesday of next week look to be the coldest days of the season (which isn’t saying much compared to December) with lows in the teens and low 20s and highs probably in the upper 20s to low 30s at best on Tuesday.
I placed the GFS model for the same time underneath for comparison and they are very similar. Some subtle differences are evident but they won’t make too much difference in the outcome. This is the second time that the European model was correct with the colder look. The first time was just the other day with the sleet/freezing rain event where the GFS was too warm.
Now going through next week we being to see the same storm signals being flashed by the European model as we saw by the GFS model overnight and on today’s day run. However the models today differ on a couple of key elements.
The big difference in the two models at day 9 is that the GFS ejects energy out to the east with the second stronger system waiting in the wings. The European has a much weaker lead system and a much stronger second system in the southwest. Also the European appears to be colder in the northeast in this time frame than the GFS. So right off the bat we have the question of what exactly will be coming out of the southwest in that strong subtropical jet. Models historically always seem to have trouble with energy out of the southwest. Also the question of cold air comes into play. The European is colder at day 10 vs the GFS as the map of temperatures at the 5000 ft level show.
When we look at the ensembles the storm signals on the European model are flashing brightly.
No doubt we will be watching this all play out. I’m leaning toward the idea of a stronger second system. This ensemble look has a stormy look for sure but as always the devil will be in the details. For the GFS analysis here is my video of the overnight models. Also was last night’s JOESTRADAMUS post.
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