The European model as well as the other models are pretty much in line now on the idea that the weather pattern is changing to one that is going to me much more active over the next couple of weeks. There are several keys to all of this and while Im not necessarily focusing on the day to day specifics with regards to our specific weather at this point (way too early), it does suggest that the quiet times we have had are about to come to an end.
We will begin the process a week from today and there is a very dynamic look to the overall pattern. The el nino induced pacific jet stream really takes complete control as we see basically a screaming firehose across the Pacific and into the west coast. 3 systems are evident here with the lead system getting ready to move out of the Northern Plains and move eastward. The European shows this to be a pretty decent rain producer for us as a deep low moves across the great lakes and into Northern New England/Eastern Canada. This system could be a big snow producer across much of Eastern and Northeastern Canada where snow cover growth has been well above normal.
It becomes more clear at day 8 and day 9 as the first system makes its exit and the next system gets ready to move into position though it appears this one is a little further south thanks to the stronger jet stream in Canada which is also shown to strengthen.
Clearly the pattern is evolving into one where it is going to get busy with weather systems coming in and there is a bit of a split flow developing across the Unitied States. Down the road there will be phasing issues and that is going to determine what kind of magnitude these storms are going achieve. What I find interesting is the low wrapping up in the Gulf of Alaska which forces ridging in the west while there is an Atlantic ridge that seems to be holding along 50N into Greenland. Warmer air appears to be building aloft across the high latitudes which will eventually displace cold air southward over time. We will need to be watching all these things very carefully over the coming weeks to see what it will all mean in the short term. Right now the fact that it is taking a stormier look overall is a sign that the el nino and the Atlantic Oscillation are beginning to flex muscles and my guess is at times one or the other will prevail in dominating short periods in the overall pattern.
At least through Tuesday the weather here remains pretty calm with just temperature swings. The GFS analysis earlier has a similar spin to all this but the European has certainly the most definitive look.
Download my weather app and subscribe to my forecasts. The app is free and a subscription is just 99 cents a month for the latest local weather forecasts for New York, New Jersey, Southern New England and Pennsylvania.