European Model Complicates Saturday Forecast

We mentioned yesterday that the weekend would be fine unless the front were to slow down for some reason and the European model now for the last few runs is indicating just that. This is not to say it is correct but let us examine what is going on. The gfs and the european are battling for what are essentially 2 different ideas about what may happen.

gfs96 euro96

The European started showing this idea strongly yesterday and it shows it even stronger today. The southern part of the trough on the European separates and strengthens verses the GFS which has one progressive disturbance moving along. The difference is very important because the European would have a wave developing on that front and developing just offshore. On the GFS the front clears the coast with no wave and Saturday is a essentially a nice day with a mix of sun and clouds. Now take a look at what this means at the surface.

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If the European model is right Saturday is going to be an absolutely miserable day with a chilly northeast wind, temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s and perhaps about an inch or so of rain. The GFS model it would be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s! They could not be more opposite. The 2 models seem to agree that Sunday and Monday will be dry and Monday will be nice and warm with temperatures in the 70s. The fact that the models are so opposing makes the forecast for Saturday a guess regarding 2 extremes. The Canadian model which never seems to get anything right lately is like the GFS model in keeping things dry. For now we will remain optimistic for Saturday but we will be looking for signs as to which model caves in first.

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