I am never comfortable with going much being 5 or 6 days to make a proclamation as too many things can change beyond the 3 or 4 day period however i took a gamble a few days ago. It appears there are no issues to speak of through Sunday. However the European model has changed the look over the eastern states to some degree and it could lead to some rain or showers early next week but I’m not as yet sold on this idea.

It should be emphasized that the other models don’t show this so for now it appears to stand alone.

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What the European model is doing is showing a trough which drops into the southeast US. The structure of the trough is pretty sharp. At the same time the model also takes a big high pressure cell to our north creating a rather strong onshore flow beginning on Monday and lasting into midweek.

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The European has the most aggressive look with the trough. The other models don’t have nearly as deep a trough and it is much further south so precipitation never gets here so it would be a matter of clouds being more the issue for early next week than anything else. Im still leaning to the idea that the European is overdone and that we will be dry through the weekend for sure. The cold front coming through Saturday night has nothing to work on and all three major models agree with that idea. A little uncertainty has been added for the first part of next week.

Beyond this temperatures will continue to be above normal into the weekend however we should cool down to near normal or perhaps just a little bit below normal for the first part of next week. Beyond that the ridge will still be primarily in the eastern states through much of next week. Another front will probably arrive and bring another high building in from the north late next week. YAWN!

euro240By the way the system in the southeast winds up meandering along the Gulf coast all late next week according to the European model. It also has some sort of tropical system out near 40 west but that is also in model fantasy land.

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