Euro Weather Model Weekend Snow?
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The Euro Weather Model Weekend Snow threat continues to show up but what also shows up is the Euro weather models view of the time of year factor and the almost convective look of the precipitation shield that it develops. Instead of one large area of precipitation either rain or wet snow, instead we see that more spring time look of weather systems. That is, they start to look less like overrunning events and more like convective events on satellite and radar.
Euro Weather Model Weekend Snow
Euro Model Surface Map Saturday Morning
Euro Weather Model Weekend Snow
Euro Model Upper Air Map Saturday Morning
When we look at the Euro weather model as compared to some of the others, it seems to line up well with the NAM model in terms of the upper air and the surface. The NAM is a little bit deeper with the system overall. Models take the low off the Delaware coast and move it east northeast and then northeast from there. However in spite of what the upper air looks like, the moisture being produced is rather underwhelming. Most areas get under a quarter of an inch except for Central and Eastern Connecticut and Central and Eastern Long Island which get anything from a quarter of inch to as much as three quarters of an inch of liquid. If that falls all in the daytime on Saturday, even if it falls as wet snow, I can’t see how this becomes anything meaningful, even in areas of elevation. Perhaps for central and eastern areas, where some of that falls at night, there could be a coating to an inch or two of wet snow on colder surfaces. It is hard for me to get worked up over this. If we were seeing the models showing explosive development off the coast then that would be another matter entirely. But all the models keep this weather system relatively tame. If this is the case Saturday will be cold raw and wet with rain and wet snow into the evening but nothing earth shattering. Cold and dry for Sunday is the forecast no matter what happens. Then it warms up early next week Monday and Tuesday.
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