Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook
Coastal Storm On Euro Model
GFS & Canadian Models Optimistic
This afternoon’s Euro weather model continues to trends of previous runs in showing a coastal storm for this weekend. However I want to point out right off the bat that the European weather model has done this several times over the last 6 weeks and has been WRONG on its perspective every single time.
Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook Analysis
As I point out in my video, the key to the forecast lies in how the weather models handle the vortex in Eastern Canada. How that vortex pulls out will determine what happens to an upper air disturbance rotating around it.
Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook
EURO UPPER AIR FRIDAY
Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook
GFS UPPER AIR FRIDAY
The two models on this afternoon’s model runs are distinctly different. The GFS takes the upper low intact and moves it out east northeast. This leaves the vortex influencing the weather in the Northeast US. The result is that the systems behind it are weaker and with much less room. The European on the other hand takes the vortex straight north and opens up the entire northeast to the troughs dropping southward. This creates the opportunity for another upper air storm to form along the east coast and a coastal surface low that goes with it. Since that vortex gets left behind, it would mean rain for much of the coming Fathers day weekend.
Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook Father’s Day
Euro Weather Model Weekend Outlook GFS Father’s Day
The Sunday picture on both models is different. The GFS is nice sunny and warm with highs in the 80s. The European is a soaking rain dismal and temperatures probably in the 60s. We continue to lean toward the optimistic outcome until proven otherwise. Also this is a cold core system on the European and the idea that it could become tropical is a bit far fetched.
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