Euro Weather Model & Others Colder Long Range
Euro Weather Model & Others Colder Long Range
We continue to see the highly volatile weather models shift in all sorts of directions but there has been a slight zeroing in on a colder patter developing later next week. The Euro weather model has been on to this for the last 3 days as other models seem to be playing catch up at this point. However they all point to a significant shift in the upper air pattern later next week. Keys to this will whether blocking begins to develop out in the Atlantic. The European model crashes the North Atlantic Oscillation and while the ensembles last night did not show this (not a fan of ensembles), the individual models today do show this. The Arctic Oscillation begins to crash this weekend and heads toward neutral to negative over the next 2 weeks.
Now it should be noted that the operational weather models and the ensemble models are going in two different directions. I have stated many times that I am not a fan of using ensembles as a forecast tool but that’s me. Others use them. They just aren’t for me. They basically are averages and in my view when you use average you get an average performance. The operational European model as well as the operational GFS model are showing the same idea with the Euro weather model more dynamic and colder.
The Euro weather model gets to the east deeper and faster but the gfs weather model is not that far off the mark. If the Euro weather model is correct it will be another shot of very cold air coming into the Eastern US.
EURO WEATHER MODEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CLICK TO ANIMATE
At this point we wait for more model runs to see if continue to see this trend. Many runs to go.
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