Euro Weather Model Loop Into December
Euro Weather models and others from the overnight runs continue to show what they have shown for days and that is a continuing split flow pattern with an increasingly active subtropical jet and a weaker but ever present northern polar jet. Euro weather model and GFS weather model as usual differ on the details with the Euro weather model showing a stronger polar jet than the gfs. Both models show a strong subtropical jet getting established.
In terms of specifics with regards to the short term other than a passing shower early Saturday morning there are no issues here through the weekend. What has happened as we have come closer to any events, models were clearly overzealous (particularly the gfs) with a lead system for Sunday Monday which weakens as it moves east into the ridge along the east coast. As we have pointed out this ridge position needs to get out of the way in order for these systems to remain intact. Both models do show a low to the Great Lakes with an approaching cold front. Both models show coastal threats that could possibly develop longer range but reliability is low as always with the gfs the most aggressive. The European seems to be starting something in the Western Gulf and has a stronger northern jetstrem
Bottom line is that for now there is nothing that appears imminently problematic. If you are travelling back over the weekend, again no weather issues anywhere in the east other than some rain showers here and there to the south and west. We will get more specific as we get past Thanksgiving.
We have some posts from yesterday that are worth a look in case you missed them.
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER INDEX AUTHOR JUDAH COHEN AND HIS WINTER FORECAST
JOESTRADAMUS WINTER FORECAST 2015-2016