Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

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The Euro model this afternoon along with the other weather models continue to focus attention on the Middle Atlantic and Northeastern States for the midweek period with the possibility of a noreaster. The overnight Euro model was exceptionally deep with a coastal low by Thursday evening sitting just offshore which would imply strong noreaster conditions and the threat for some serious coastal flooding.

Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

Overnight and Day Run Euro Model for Thursday

euro144 Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek euro120 Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

 

The maps above show the overnight run at the top and the day run underneath. There are 2 big differences. First off the day run is 12 hours faster and further northwest. It is also less deep at this stage. The issue is the position of the upper air storm. Today’s run does not dive the upper feature into the Southern Appalachians but instead keeps it further north into Southern Ohio/West Virginia. That shift is important because it does alter the coastal profile of the storm. Now this does not mean necessarily that either run is exactly correct and there is some compromise here that could be in order. Still it seems that a period of heavy rain and wind seem likely for the coast later Wednesday into Thursday (if you buy this timing).

All of this hinges really on the strength of the blocking in the atmosphere later this week. A stronger blocking signal would force the track to be further east like the overnight run. Both runs actually wind up hooking the surface low to the northwest eventually. The GFS model follows the Euro model rather closely in this idea though it seems to time things out about 24 hours slower than the Euro model.

Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

GFS MODEL FRIDAY

gfs144 Euro Model Shows Coastal Low Midweek

So what do we do from a forecast standpoint? I think it is safe to say that something is going to happen late this week in the east but there are still lots of questions regarding timing and depth. I think the threat for a noreaster is there. Add the full moon to the equation and there could be some serious coastal flooding issues if this plays out. But as we learned this past winter, models have had there ups and downs with development of storms in the east so there may be more model surprises coming.

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