Euro Model Marching
We are just 5 days away from meteorological spring. These are the 3 months in which average temperatures rise the fastest. For our area average highs rise from the low to mid 40s at the end of February to the mid to upper 50s by the end of March. Such a sharp rise leads to lots of volatility and given that that has been the signature of the last two months, it would be logical to expect that volatility to continue. At times that volatility will cause events like yesterday with severe weather and very strong winds. It will also cause shots of cold air from time to time and that always sets up the chance for some winter weather. However given the current state of affairs, that clock is ticking rather rapidly. Set ups if they occur are going to require near perfect set ups. Let us at this point see what we have going on in the upper air pattern.
Euro Model Marching Long Term Indices
Normally in the spring the pattern tends to get more blocky in nature. This seems to be the trend of the models over the last few days. The North Atlantic Oscillation or N.A.O. is forecast to be slightly positive into the beginning of the month and then trend negative. This will be coupled with a strong Pacific North America Pattern Index or P.N.A. which is forecast to remain strongly positive though it trends down as we move along in time. This suggests a colder signature across Canada but it doesn’t necessarily mean all that cold air moves into the United States or the Northeast. It could be that the cold air lies along the border with occasional bleeding southward. To me this doesn’t throw out a strong signal for any prolonged cold. At best I think we can say that temperatures will oscillate on either side of normal by a small amount as we move through the first part of March.
Euro Model Marching Euro Model Jet Stream Next Monday
Looking at the European Model jet stream forecast for early next week, it appears relatively benign. There is some ridging in the west but not much. There is some troughing in the east but not much. A week ago the models were all forecasting that vortex in Eastern Canada to be much further south but that did not happen. The next disturbance in the Pacific northwest looks ready to dive into the middle Mississippi Valley. It looks to some degree like what just happened but with less magnitude.
Euro Model Marching Jet Stream Next Wednesday
With the position of that trough back along 90 degrees west it argues for a storm to move to our north again. This would mean temperatures will be above normal to start the month and that the next weather system will wind up going to our north. Colder air will be over the midwest and perhaps in northern areas of upstate New York and New England but no further south than that. With the NAO in positive mode the low will cut and track to our north with a cold front heading for the coast along about Wednesday.
Euro Model Marching Surface Map Next Wednesday
Now beyond this point is when the Euro Model starts to show a more blocky look which would match the indicators above. High pressure builds along 40w in the Atlantic toward Greenland. This forces the jet stream a little further south in the east. However the issue then becomes something we have been seeing all winter. Notice there are numerous systems running around. We have seen models have difficulty in the long range (and even in the shorter range) trying to figure out which of the systems are more important. Also models have had a difficult time timing these things out and how they interact with each other. Such will be the case here. It is hard to come to any conclusion on today’s Euro model series.
Euro Model Marching Jet Stream Saturday March 5 2016
Given the turbulent state of the atmosphere, and the fact that models have forecast 10 of the last 0 blocking patterns, it would seem to me that each model run needs to been seen with a very skeptical eye. We still think that there might be one more opportunity for a winter type event in the first 2 weeks of March. But its going to have to come with everything lining up just right.
Our weather will be in a slow calming mode over the next few days. Here is my colleague FiOS1 News Meteorologist Brian Fitzgerald with more on our local weather. I will be on FiOS1 News beginning tonight at 5pm.
Euro Model Marching FiOS1 News Weather Broadcast
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