Euro Model Long Range Analysis
Since I have been focusing most of my attention to the long range gfs model on my videos I thought I’d spend a little time on the Euro model this morning. I’ve been using the long range gfs mainly because of timing. It is mostly done by the time I get home from FiOS1 News and doing a European analysis requires me to stay up to 3 in the morning by the time I’m done and I’m not doing that unless a snowstorm is threatening. Here is the video on the gfs long range model from last night and the Euro model analysis follows
So let’s take a look and see what is going on with the euro model. I jumped out to day 10 right off the bat because nothing much of consequence regarding the long term is happening inside day 7. What you are seeing here is the European operational run which is the model run u get to see, and the European Ensemble which is a group of European models, each with different model parameters. The idea is that over the course of time different parameters see different things and it helps to get an idea sometimes of which way things are going My problem with ensembles is that the ensemble map you see below (labeled ENS) is basically an average of all the different model members so in the end you are going to get a “mean” model look which is useful and also at the same time misleading because it smooths out the pattern and perhaps doesn’t allow you to see what’s going on. On the other hand it sometimes will tell you that what you on the operational doesn’t make sense.
What is very interesting about the 2 pictures to is how remarkably similar they are in the southern stream. Trough in the west, ridge in the east. The operational and the ensemble are almost carbon copies of each other. Where they are different is in the north. The operational has a slightly blocky look as low pressure forms Southwest of Greenland 2 days before and actually retrogrades back westward while there are rising pressures building from Europe toward the North Pole. The ensemble on the other had seems to be migrating and developing a polar vortex in Northern Hudson’s Ba with a stronger flow developing across Canada. So you can see the dilemma here between the two and if you want to rely on the average ensemble look, it would indicate that the operational model look may not be very reliable.
Now let’s throw in the GFS from 240 hours and you can see another weird mess here with a split flow..vortexes here and there. It has a much more broken look. Split flow across the US means cold air will probably stay north of the border but Canada might get colder for a change. But it is hard to grasp a feel for there this is going or if it is going anywhere at all.
In the end it doesn’t really change things through Christmas weekend in the long term so it is on to the next run to see if there are any clues to be offered.
One more thing. Here is the what the stratosphere is doing at day 16 and it seems to me that the process begins around day 11 or 12. There is a definite elongation of the vortex at the highest level of the atmosphere. This could be a hopeful sign for winter weather lovers.
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