There is so much model confusion and remember, I am remaining skeptical on the possibility of a coastal storm for this weekend. There is nothing that has changed over the last few months in the overall pattern. There is too much energy running around. Models continue to do different things from run to run as we go through time. Nothing at all has changed in the last three months. This weather system will be no different in my view.
Euro Model Gfs Model Canadian Model Differences EUROPEAN SURFACE MAP MONDAY MARCH 21, 2016
Today’s model runs seem to be all over the place. The Euro model which for days was showing low pressure to the west, now shows a coastal storm. The GFS model which has been showing a coastal storm for days, now on its mid afternoon update run, shows NOTHING!
Euro Model Gfs Model Canadian Model Differences NEW GFS SHOWS MUCH WEAKER PROFILE
The new GFS model shown above has a totally different look of the upper air jet stream. The southern feature which you can see clearly on the map below is now almost non existent. The big difference is caused by what is going on in the Atlantic to our east. The new run shows no ridge building in between the low at at 50N 50 W and the coast. You need that ridge to be there otherwise the southern feature gets completely lost in the flow. This is a new model development that we need to pay close attention to.
Euro Model Gfs Model Canadian Model Differences GFS FROM EARLIER TODAY FOR SUNDAY MARCH 20TH
Now what about the Canadian model. This model has probably been more consistent than the others with less variation the last few days. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some change from run to run. Today’s shows a coastal low with a warmer look and much weaker.
Euro Model Gfs Model Canadian Model Differences CANADIAN UPPER AIR AND SURFACE SUNDAY MARCH 20TH
So what should we look for in future Weather Model runs?
Well first off the new GFS offers a warning. If the ridge between the coast and the low out in the Atlantic does not build, then there will be nothing more than a weak low offshore with a cold front and that’s it. The Euro model and Canadian model offer a more phased look and how that phase takes shape will be key in track and development. My own view is that the phased look on the models this far out is NOT BULLISH. It is likely that the models in future runs will phase differently or perhaps, not phase at all. We have seen 3 or 4 of these types of systems in the last 6 weeks. In each case the model was over zealous with a phased look early in the game, only to become completely unphased and weaker over time. I can’t see anything that says this time would be different. Now if the European locks on in the next 3 or 4 runs, then maybe along about Wednesday or Thursday I might get more interested. All the long range indices are strongly favorable for something to happen. But as I have said over and over for the last few weeks, just because the indices say go, if the jet stream doesn’t align correctly, those indices will matter very little.
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