Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle
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Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

As we get closer to the weekend and the possibility of 2 coastal lows, a few things are becoming clear. One is that things are clearly unclear. The other is that the second coastal low that models were showing early next is shown to be a non factor. What is a forecaster to do?

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning

gfs84 euro96

This afternoon’s weather model runs go in opposite directions. The GFS model was deeper and further north bringing with it a round of wind and rain Saturday into Saturday night. The Euro model run was much further southeast and rain never makes it further north then Central New Jersey and barely touches the south shore of Long Island! This has to do with how the models handle the upper air feature as it heads to the east coast.

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

Upper Air Sunday Morning

gfs96 Euro Model Gfs Model Battle
euro96 Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

The more definable northern stream on the GFS model pulls the first surface low further north and makes it a little deeper than the European which slides it out to the northeast. The other big change is for Tuesday.  Both models show a rather deep upper air feature “cutting off” however the GFS drops it well south and east while the Euro keeps it along the coast. These model runs are well to the right of earlier runs of the last several days.

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

 Upper Air Tuesday

euro144 Euro Model Gfs Model Battle gfs144 Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

In either case, models have backed way off developing the second surface low for Tuesday and keep it well offshore. The Euro suggests some rain could come back westward. The GFS would back rain in from the east Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface low moves north. But that low is well east of prior runs.

Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

GFS Model Tuesday Night

gfs162 Euro Model Gfs Model Battle

The Euro model has at least taken the wrapped up gale center of yesterday off the table for the time being. Both models would suggest these are minor nuisances. Either way once this exits the area after the middle of next week, the weather pattern shifts somewhat to one where everything moves along and no onshore flow. This would be relatively good news as we approach the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

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