Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

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Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

Dynamic Upper Air But Lots of Questions

All of today’s weather models continue to focus on the April polar vortex dropping far to the south of normal and pointing energy to some sort of storm system to develop along the Middle Atlantic Coast Saturday into Sunday morning. Once again we are faced with the same dilemmas we have seen with almost every storm since mid January. There is lots of energy running around. How will they phase or not phase? Is the blocking signal with the Greenland high so strong that it will force development to far to the south to have significant impact?

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs Saturday Morning Upper Air Forecast

euro96 Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

We have above the wide and tight views of the Euro model 96 hour forecast which is for Saturday morning. A strong disturbance dives southward into the Ohio Valley and the question is where do we go from here. Does the system lift up northeast or does it translate eastward first before lifting northward. The difference in the outcome is huge here. Given that we will be surrounded by unusually cold air, it will be very important regarding any forecasts for the weekend. Whether we get precipitation or not, it is going to be unusually cold for this time of year. That at least we know.

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs Saturday Morning Surface Map

Euro Model Flashing Caution Signs

 

Surface low pressure on the European develops along the Virginia coast on Saturday morning and on this run moves northeast. It does bring precipitation and some of it is snow for Delaware and parts of interior Southern New Jersey on this run. However precipiation doesn’t get much further north than Central New Jersey before moving out to the east. The issue will be ultimately how the upper feature to northwest of the surface low is structured. More of a phase could mean snow up to Southern New England. Less of a phase means little or no precipitation and just cold and dry. And of course remember the time of day makes a huge difference. Also bear in mind that given the experiences of the past couple of months we would be saying the exact same thing had the model painted a bullish view for snow up and down the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. We can only punt to the next model run at this point and see how all the energy times out and whether the Euro model is overdoing or under doing all this. The ugly April weather pattern continues.

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