El Nino La Nina Transition

El Nino La Nina Transition

El Nino La Nina Transition
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We are beginning to see an El Nino La Nina Transition underway in the Pacific Ocean. The deterioration of the el nino has been a very slow process but this should be no surprise. The El nino was huge in size and intenstity so it is no wonder that the breakdown process has been slower than modeled. The latest sea surface temperature map bears this out.  We are seeing the area of above normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific continuing to shrink. We also see the development of a cold pool of water off the coast of South America. And we are also seeing an expanding area of below normal temperatures in the Northern Pacific though the waters close to the coastline from Alaska southward to Southern California remain much above normal.

El Nino La Nina Transition Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

sst.daily.anom

These transitions are usually slow to develop but once they are underway they eventually get the job done. Now I don’t think we are at the point where it is exerting a big influence on weather patterns world wide. That will depend on how the growth of that cold pool in the Pacific behaves over the coming months. Meanwhile on the Atlantic side a similar cooling is underway across the subtropical and tropical Atlantic with an area of below normal temperatures appearing in the tropical Atlantic mid way between the African coast and the Leeward Islands. Also many have been watching the cold pool of water southeast of Greenland. That area could eventually send cooler water southward toward the African coast. There could be an impact to the hurricane season if that trend continues regarding perhaps Cape Verde Island storm development. But I usually like to wait to see where things are in a couple of months. I don’t think we can draw any important conclusions this early. Hurricane season begins in less than 6 weeks in the Atlantic and it begins in about 3 weeks (May 15th) in the Eastern Pacific.

With regards to the short range weekend forecast, we have some scattered showers and thunderstorms running around tonight. Check the latest weekend outlook for more information.

Also long range the blocking pattern in the North Atlantic will impact our weather next week. Check the latest JOESTRADAMUS post with more on that.

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