East Pacific Oscillation Watch For Pattern Change
Watching East Pacific Oscillation or EPO For Pattern Change
We continue to be on watch and wait mode for a mid November pattern change. Weather models today remain pretty much on course for this. The one missing ingredient at the moment is the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO.
The reason why we are watching the East Pacific Oscillation closer than the other oscillations is that this oscillation is an important driver of cold air. When the East Pacific Oscillation is negative it favors higher pressures in the East Pacific which deflects cold air southward into the United States.
When the EPO index is negative you can have a positive North Atlantic Oscillation and still wind up with colder than normal conditions in the east. Such was the case throughout much of the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-2015 where North Atlantic blocking was virtually non existent. Weather models are forecasting a positive EPO for the first week of November but notice that it trends downward for the second weak toward the neutral line. This trend would be supportive for a colder second half of November provided that it continues the downtrend into the negative zone. We will get some hints of this later this coming week.
The impact of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in the short term will probably mean that while it will be warmer than normal in the east at times, the blocking in the Atlantic will send down occasional shots of cool air to mitigate that. One cool shot comes in Monday into Tuesday this week and then we warm up Wednesday into Thursday before another cold front comes through Thursday and cools it down for Friday and into the weekend.
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWTH RATE INDEX OCTOBER 29TH
The Siberian snow cover index continues its rapid upward movement. With two days to go it appears that the index will finish in the top 3 barring a last minute stall out. It is even with last year and would finish number 2 behind the October 2014 which is currently in the number 1 position. Meanwhile North America snow cover is growing at its fastest rate in the last 12 years!
I have not seen any research that links North America snow cover growth rates to colder winters in the Eastern US. For what it’s worth, this year it is at the top of the charts and just ahead of the prior three winters.
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