Dry Through Thursday Before Wetter Pattern Takes Hold Northeast Mid Atlantic

Dry Through Thursday Before Wetter Pattern Takes Hold Northeast Mid Atlantic

Dry Through Thursday Before Wetter Pattern Takes Hold Northeast Mid Atlantic

We are starting off this holiday shortened work week with a nice day. Wildfire smoke is still creating hazy conditions today and that will likely be the story for much of this week, though at the moment we only see moderate amounts of smoke particles in the air and no signs at the moment of any dense smoke plumes moving south. As we lay that worry aside the question for this week is how long can it stay dry before we have to start dealing with rain moving up from the Southeast US.

The satellite loop shows much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states dry today. On the lower left we can see clouds moving into the Southeast along with widespread rain and thunderstorms. That rainy pattern will be holding in the Southeast until a southerly flow develops later this week. Meanwhile today it is a day of sunshine through the daily smokey haze. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and low to middle 80s inland. Im leaving out the chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

SATELLITE

WEATHER RADAR

Showers and thunderstorms will not be an issue at least through Wednesday thanks to a ridge of high pressure building across the Great Lakes and Northeast which is effectly suppressing lower pressures across the Gulf States where wet weather will be occurring all week. Tonight should be fine with nothing more than some passing clouds. Lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Tuesday we will call it partly sunny with highs in the 70s to around 80 thanks to east winds that develop and work their way inland.

The same should hold for Wednesday as we will have the east wind continuing. The onshore flow that develops this week will likely start to bring in some clouds during nighttime hours from east to west and then it will be a matter of how long it takes for those clouds to break and give way to partly sunny skies. Such is the case I believe for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s with coolest readings coast and some highs near 80 well inland. Again no rain is forecast for Wednesday.

The end of the week we see a faster breakdown of the upper high over the Great Lakes and New England. This holds firm Tuesday into Wednesday but it begins to retreat northward and weaken come Thursday. Meanwhile we will see widespread heavy rain on and off today through Wednesday from Virginia south to Florida and west through the Gulf States.

Models are at odds as to when the southerly flow develops. The GFS brings rain up the coast Thursday while the European Model does the same but it is a day slower. We are going to lean toward the slower idea for now where rain perhaps makes it to Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey at some point Thursday but doesn’t reach Southern New England and points north until Thursday night or early Friday. Certainly clouds will be an issue Thursday with highs in the 70s to near 80 and by Friday we will be seeing on and off showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 70s to near 80. The wet pattern looks to hold into the weekend which means more rounds of rain possible Saturday and Sunday.

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