DROUGHT BREAKING RAIN, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11, NOREASTER THREAT?

Drought breaking rain, tropical depression 11 and a possible noreaster threat all are in the cards this week. The development of the tropical depression has complicated the forecast outlook somewhat. Today is the 15th day without any rain and while there could be an isolated shower in one or two spots, today should be the last day of the streak.

Three players are on the scene this morning. We have the cold front to the west which doesn’t get here until tomorrow night. We have an upper trough in the Western Gulf of Mexico which is pulling up tropical moisture from the northwest Caribbean. And we have new tropical depression 11 that is east of the Bahamas. The arrows are showing how the upper flow in the atmosphere is drawing moisture toward the US. Right now the players are separate features.However as the front approaches it will be absorbing the tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico upper trough and this should enhance the rain ahead of the cold front. Those rains should arrive in western areas late Tuesday or Tuesday evening and then spread to the coast and points east late Tuesday night and continue  into Wednesday. The nam model is pretty generous with rainfall showing anywhere from 1.50 to 3 inches of rain from this with some locally higher amounts through Wednesday afternoon. Recent experience from rainfall around here suggest cutting that back in half but I’m hoping that all that tropical moisture being absorbed northward winds up depositing some decent rains. It should be noted that the there is additional rain forecast by the models beyond Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The situation is complicated by Tropical Depression 11 and what that does. Let me make clear that conditions for development are not favorable and while it could become a tropical storm, it will be absorbed by the cold front. What I would like to see happen is that all that tropical moisture get absorbed while the front is hung up overhead which would enhance rainfall even further.

With regards to the nor’easter threat late this week, the overall look has changed somewhat since yesterday. Models stall the front along the coast and come out with different ideas on how this plays. Tropical Depression 11 does complicate matters somewhat as it is forecast to move northward up the coast later in the week. The European seems to key on this and bring it slowly up the coast. This model produces 2 to 8 inch rains from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southeastern New England over the next 7 days.
This is a very complicated weather picture that is developing for the week and it makes my debut on FiOS1 News this week wonderful as is any baptism by fire!  I will have a separate post on Tropical Depression 11 later this morning.

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