Dorian Strengthening Warnings Windward Islands Low Off East Coast Continues

Dorian Strengthening Warnings Windward Islands Low Off East Coast Continues

Tropical Storm Dorian is surrounded by dry air and this has limited development somewhat however that seems to be mitigated by a very solid core, a strong outflow pattern aloft and light upper air winds with minimal shear. Strengthening has gotten underway as evidenced by the satellite loop overnight. Dorian continues on a west to west northwest course with the Windward Islands the target for later today and tonight.

SATELLITE

Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

…COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED…
…EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…12.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 205 MI…330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI…505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 57.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and Wednesday while it
moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

There is no change in the forecast logic here with Dorian moving into the Eastern Caribbean and then turning more northwest. We still have big questions about what happens once Dorian gets into the Caribbean. Will strong upper air winds tear it apart as some models suggest? Certainly the Eastern Caribbean has a history of being a hostile environment for tropical systems.  We will examine the issue later today when daytime weather models show their hands.

East Coast Satellite

We still have low pressure this morning sitting off the Southeast Coast of the US. The low is well offshore and it remains elongated from southwest to northeast. The satellite loops overnight show that it is a little better organized and there is a good chance this becomes a tropical or subtropical depression later today or tonight. Even if that happens we don’t see this making any difference in our weather here as all tracking models take this system northeastward into midweek and well offshore.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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