Dorian Strengthening Warnings Expanded Windward Islands
Looking at the satellite loops this afternoon we see that Dorian is now responding to favorable upper air conditions aloft and it has strengthened. You will notice on the satellite loop below the explosion of red. This is indicating that the clouds tops are cooling rapidly and that the storm is becoming more symmetric. This is a floater image which means that the geography adjusts as the storm moves westward which is the jump you are seeing as the animation plays through.
Dorian could reach strong tropical storm strength before reaching the Windward Islands Monday. One of the things that sometimes happens with with small storms is that they tend to respond faster to environmental conditions both to the upside and the downside. Don’t be shocked if Dorian strengthens rapidly overnight into Monday and then don’t be shocked if it weakens quickly once it moves into the Eastern Caribbean.
5PM ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
…NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI…780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grenada and its dependencies.
The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
The big question is what happens after Dorian moves into the Eastern Caribbean. While it has favorable conditions for strengthening now, weather models do show strengthening upper air winds in the Eastern Caribbean which will weaken the storm if this verifies. Not all models are on course with this nor are we sure whether Dorian stays on a westerly heading or does it turn more northerly. This is a critical question for Islands like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as they have yet to completely recover from Hurricanes Irma and Maria from a few years ago.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast has Dorian strengthening to a hurricane passing south of Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon. We shall see if this is indeed the case. If Dorian strengthens faster it could pull the storm more northward than this track indicates. This is something to be watched closely.
EAST COAST SATELLITE
During this afternoon the broad low pressure area off the Florida coast has reformed closer to the convection that is in that long frontal zone running from offshore the Carolinas northeast to Nova Scotia. So far we do not see thunderstorms clustering around the center of the low. It appears that much of the thunderstorm activity remains to the east of the center. Conditions are still conducive for some development however this is NOT going to be any threat to the East Coast of the US regardless of development.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.