Dorian Heading Toward Puerto Rico Hurricane Watch Posted

Dorian Heading Toward Puerto Rico Hurricane Watch Posted

Dorian Heading Toward Puerto Rico Hurricane Watch Posted

Tropical storm warnings are still in effect for a small portion of the Leeward Islands now that Dorian has moved into the Northeaster Caribbean sea. Next is Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic where Tropical Storm Warnings are posted and a hurricane watch is up for Puerto Rico.

Here is the 2pm Advisory from the National Hurricane Center

…DORIAN’S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH…
…HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI…595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the
center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during
the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday,
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos
and southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close
to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada…1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica…1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic…4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
U.S. Virgin Islands…1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SATELLITE

The wide Atlantic satellite loop shows Dorian in the Northeast Caribbean and moving toward the northwest. The center has reformed this morning further north which increases the risk to Puerto Rico and to the Dominican Republic. Off the Southeast coast of the US we have Tropical Depression 6 and you can see the exposed low level circulation on the northern edge of the convection. The depression remains poorly organized. There is also an upper low well to the north northeast of Dorian that is creating a weakness in the upper high high to the north. This is allowing Dorian to pull more northward.

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Now comes the big questions for the longer term and those are whether Dorian encounters strong wind shear and/or the mountainous terrains of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic to disrupt the circulation or weakening it. On the other hand weather models have been over aggressive on wind shear in the Northeast Caribbean and the loop doesn’t show any shear issues at the moment.

If Dorian survives those obstacles then it will emerge north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and turn to the west northwest in the longer range. An upper high will build to the north of the storm forcing it on this west northwest track. This will increase the risk to the Bahamas and Florida in the longer term for late this week and this coming weekend.

Upper air winds along the east coast are not favorable for Dorian to move up the East Coast. The upper ridge building effectively creates a brick wall across the Southern half of the US east out into the Atlantic. Upper air winds from the Middle Atlantic states northward are from the west to the east which again is not what you would see for a Middle Atlantic or Northeast tracking tropical system.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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