Coastal Storm Should Remain Far Enough East To Spare Us Major Issues
As we look at what is going on this afternoon we are beginning to see all the pieces of the puzzle taking shape in th Eastern US & the Western Atlantic. Low pressure is developing now off the Southeast coast of the US. Clouds from last night’s frontal boundary are now lined up from Newfoundland southwest into the Southeast US. We see a cluster of showers and thunderstorms taking a cyclonic signature off the Southeast coast. So far we are not seeing too much in the way of tropical influence here and at least for now this system remains a non tropical or extratropical low that is developing offshore.
Rain is settng up from Coastal Delaware and Southeast New Jersey northeast to south of Long Island and Southern New England. As of early afternoon we don’t see much north or northwest progression of this rain area but we will see an arc of rain pivot back westward later tonight into Wednesday morning. For now for much of the area we see lots of clouds for the remainder of the day and into tonight with just the odd spot shower popping up with temperatures just into the 60s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Looking at what is happening in the Western Atlantic right now we see an unusual blocking pattern that has set up with numerous exit ways for lows offshore blocked off by strong highs both in the Eastern Atlantic and the Northwest Atlantic.
The eastern Atlantic low near the Azores blocks the Central Atlantic subtropical low and moves it west northwest. This closes the exit for the low off the Southeast coast to the east and forces it northward into a big high in the Northwest Atlantic which is temporarily blocked by the Azores high. This in turn keeps the storm developing in the Rockies and Plains from moving east and forces it northward to the path of least resistance. The set up locks the coastal low off the coast east of Delaware and south of Cape Cod for Thursday and Friday until the Central and Eastern Atlantic features all break down. You can see it on the loop of the GFS from Wednesday through Saturday.
The track of the low is near or just west of 70 west which is far enough offshore to spare Delaware and New Jersey coastlines major issues. Yes there will be gales and yes there will be a long series of high tides beginning Wednesday and peaking on Friday where there could certainly be some coastal flooding and beach erosion however flooding should be minor to moderate in some areas and is certainly not “Sandy-like” as the weather hysterics out there will tell you.
Winds offshore will begin increasing tonight bringing fringe gales to the coast Wednesday. The strongest winds will likely be Thursday when the low pivots back to the northwest to where it south of Montauk and east of Atlantic City. Winds along the New Jersey coast will be from the north here which will alleviate tidal concerns to an extent. The strongest winds will be along the south shore of Long Island to the East End eastward to Southeastern New England with gusts over 50 mph likely at times. Long Island winds will be from the east northeast Wednesday and gradually back to the northeast and north which will also alleviate tidal concerns for the south shore to an extent though they may create tidal concerns on the north shore of Long Island during high tides on Thursday. Fortunately the peak tides here are over the weekend and into next week when the storm is long gone.
Rainfall amounts will be light inland of the coast. Other than a few pockets of a half inch most inland rainfall will be well under half an inch. Along the immediate New Jersey coast up to an inch is possible. The highest amounts will be across Long Island particularly Central and Eastern Suffolk County, coastal Connecticut. There will be some rain on Wednesday and the strongest surge of rain for the coast will be late Wednesday night and Thursday. Friday will see lingering rain in some areas.
This map describes the impacts that I expect. I put it up two days ago and I see no reason to change this at this time. The worst of this will be Wednesday night into Thursday night. Weather conditions will start to improve over the weekend as the blocking breaks down completely and the Plains storm moves east and kicks the coastal low out to sea.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.