Coastal Flooding Risk

Coastal Flooding Risk

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With the approaching major storm for this coming week we have the risk of at least moderate coastal flooding. We not only have a major storm on the table but it is coming off a full moon which is Monday. In addition we have the risk for heavy rains which will cause flooding in poor drainage areas, Early model forecasts are indicating a widespread area of 2 inch plus run rains from this storm from Wednesday into Early Thursday.

Coastal Flooding Risk GFS RAINFALL FORECAST

gfsprec Coastal Flooding Risk

Back to the coastal flooding possibility. There are 2 stages to this. First will be the onshore flow that sets up beginning Monday and lasts into early Wednesday. This will have an impact on the New Jersey shore. The good news is that the pressure gradient (difference in pressure between the low and high divided by the distance) is not overly strong. The impact will be probably more from the full moon. However as we have learned it does not take much to cause moderate coastal flooding these days so it will have to be monitored.

Coastal Flooding Risk GFS TUESDAY SURFACE MAP

gfs54 Coastal Flooding Risk

 

The second phase will be from later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the Long Island South Shore when winds shift from the northeast and east to the south. Southerly winds later Wednesday into Wednesday night will reach gale force or higher, though we will be 2 days past the full moon so that helps a little. Still the waters will be building higher with each tide cycle so this will need to be monitored as well.

Coastal Flooding Risk GFS SURFACE MAP WEDNESDAY

gfs90 Coastal Flooding Risk

With regards to precipitation type, except for some snow or sleet at the start later Tuesday this is pretty much a rain event all the way through. This is another example of how you can have what seems to be an ideal set up but if the atmosphere doesn’t line up right, it is not going to happen. For those of you who think that winter is done, I would suggest that this winter has been one of volatility. I don’t think anything has changed from that perspective. Each episode of temperature rises to the 60s has been followed within a week with an extreme in the other direction. Let me suggest that we could be in for another wild swing.

Coastal Flooding

Risk LONG RANGE INDEX FORECASTS

nao Coastal Flooding Risk

Above are two very important indexes which indicate that the volatility is not done yet. The Pacific North America Pattern which I believe has been the driver over the last 6 weeks as it fights with the weakening el nino for dominance continues to flash huge positive readings which points to strong ridging in the west. The North Atlantic Oscillation or N.A.O has been trending negative for the last number of days and is forecast to go negative or at worst weakly positive which favors blocking and colder weather in the east. The N.A.O. is highly volatile in and of itself and has not been around much this winter.

epo Coastal Flooding Risk

Finally we have the East Pacific Oscillation or E.P.O which when negative drives cold air into the eastern United States. Couple all this with the Arctic Oscillation which is forecast to crash negative again after another serious arctic warming episode tells me that there might still be one or two surprises coming in the next several weeks.

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