Coastal Flooding, Noreaster Conditions, Gale Warnings For Long Island & New Jersey

gfs24Coastal Flooding is going to be an issue the next few days and we do not want to lose sight of that fact with all the attention being given to Hurricane Joaquin. We have a very tight pressure gradient that has set up from Boston South to the Carolinas. Northeast to East winds will be howling Friday and Saturday and we have already seen some coastal flooding in New Jersey and the next several tides are only going to be higher with the continuous piling of water. High seas of 10 feet or more on top of this means moderate flooding is likely.

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Tight isobars or lines of equal pressure are plentiful from the big high in Eastern Canada and the hurricane well to the south. This is creating a long easterly fetch of winds and this upper air pattern doesn’t really change much through Sunday. We also have some rain in the mix but that rain shield is fighting high pressure to the north so it can only get so far north before it dries up. The rain dries up once you get north of the lower Hudson Valley and interior Connecticut. The gradient will be impacted further if Hurricane Joaquin were to track further to the west so it is important for many obvious reasons why we need to resolve the final track of the hurricane.

The botttom line is that the weather through Saturday will have the feel of a noreaster even though we aren’t exactly dealing with a non tropical system off the coast which is the traditional noreaster look. Beach erosion is likely and it could become severe if Hurricane Joaquin decides it prefers a more west track than an offshore one. Rain at least will be beneficial though it will not be extreme by any means as the tropical moisture remains pinned down much further south. Still rain spread out over 36 hours will do some good. Later Saturday that high will press down a but and enough dry air will force the rain shield south. Sky conditions could improve later Saturday into Sunday. Of course all this also depends on what the hurricane ultimately winds up doing. For the latest on the overnight runs and what they did check my GFS post from earlier.

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