RAIN THIS MORNING SETTLES SOUTH
CLOUDY COOL WEEKEND
MORE RAIN DEVELOPING SUNDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FLORENCE MOVING WEST THREAT TO EAST COAST INCREASING
This morning we wake up to a bit of a busy looking radar with rains pushing eastward across New Jersey. A bit of a wave has developed on the cold front that moved through Thursday night. Flooding is occuring over parts of New Jersey & Eastern Pennsylvania with numerous flood advisories and flood warnings posted in these areas. Also a Flash Flood Watch is posted for Sunday from Western New Jersey westward through Pennsylvania. The rain that is coming is due to low pressure moving out of the Midwest carrying the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon that hit the Gulf Coast earlier this week.
Temperatures overnight bottomed mostly in the 60s and we aren’t going anywhere temperature wise with all these clouds and a northeast wnid. Look for any rain that is around this morning to gradually settle southward later today. We will be stuck with clouds due to the onshore flow from the big high to the north.
Regional radar shows the lead area of rain playing through this morning. To the west in Western Pennsylvania and Eastern Ohio is more rain and that will be moving eastward here for Sunday. Local radars show the rain this morning is mostly over Central New Jersey & Southeastern Pennsylvania moving eastward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The rain settles south tonight which much of the area under cloudy skies and it will be cooler with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s by morning. Then we set the table for more rain on Sunday as it begins to move northward through New Jersey and Pennsylvania during the day and into Southern New England and Long Island by Sunday evening. Temperatures Sunday will be just into the 60s. The warm front starts to approach and it will attempt to move through slowly on Monday with more rain or showers at least for awhile until the front goes by. Highs will make there way back into the 70s.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES
Rainfall amounts could be substantial with 2 to 3 inches possible over the next 3 days from NYC westward with amounts particularly high across Pennsylvania which saw tremendous rains during the month of August. Once this system plays through we will be setting up the atmosphere for the arrival of Florence later this week. The threat is growing for impact along the US East Coast.
Above is the European model which has seemingly locked on to the South Carolina coast as landfall. The European likes in the middle of the weather model forecasts from overnight. It is really going to depend on the strength of the upper high off the East Coast as each model handles it differently. This European scenario would not only bring a direct hit to the coast but then heavy flooding rains would spread northward into the Central Appalachians where they have seen 30 inches or more of rain in the last 2 months. This is just one possibility of course but the further south track of Florence is concerning. With regards to impact here it seems that a direct hit threat while not completely off the table yet, seems less likely at the moment. We will be looking at weather all weekend and keeping you abreast of the situation. Meanwhile we discussed a number of possibilities last night on the Joe & Joe Weather Show.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.