Chilly Sunday Burst of Snow to Rain Monday
One of the nice things about March is that the strengthening sun angle can take the sting of cold out of the air rather quickly though the cold air didn’t really arrive today but it is moving in tonight. Skies are clear and with a north wind it will get rather cold overnight. Lows will be in the 20s except lower 30s in the warmer urban areas. The satellite picture shows us under a clear sky in the Northeast US with high pressure building from the Great Lakes to Quebec. The radars are silent and they will remain silent through Sunday. We will have sunshine for most of Sunday though some high clouds will arrive in the afternoon. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 40s.
Clouds will increase and thicken up Sunday night as the high slides east and we are setting up for precipitation on Monday. Afternoon weather models show very little change from earlier so we see no need to adjust forecasts regarding snow amounts or the cold rain that envelop most of the area on Monday from NYC south and west.
The colder NAM and European models allow for snow to develop during the morning hours on Monday with the coast seeing a little snow or sleet and the start before going to rain. Inland areas in New Jersey north of Route 80 and west of 287 could see a longer period of wet snow and we think the idea of a coating to an inch or so on grassy surfaces is possible with maybe an inch or two in NW New Jersey. This remains an elevation driven event so the higher up you are the more snow you might see.
The latest National Weather Service snow forecast numbers match up rather well with my forecast from yesterday and I have made no changes in my outlook here. What falls during the daytime will likely have to deal with the high sun angle and borderline temperatures. This at least will be a distraction for us with everything going on regarding the coronavirus.
We should point out that this system will producing a fair amount of precipitation. Three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter of total precipitation seems likely from this low. Precipitation in whatever form will come to an end Monday evening from southwest to northeast.
We will see improvement on Tuesday with some sunshine and highs back into the 50s but we have another low approaching for Tuesday night into Wednesday and this will bring another round of precipitation though this time it will be mostly rain for all.
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