Cheap Thrill Alert Sunday Night Monday Morning
With all the attention focused on the middle of next week, we don’t want something to slip through the cracks. One of the things that caught my eye was Sunday night into Monday. A cold front is going to be moving through and normally this would not be an issue. The GFS model certainly won’t make it an issue as it takes low pressure across upstate New York. This would make it just a simple cold front with nothing more than a shower or two when it goes by.
Cheap Thrill Alert Sunday Night Monday Morning GFS VS EUROPEAN MONDAY 2/22/2016
This is a pretty straight forward look. Nothing out of the ordinary. However the European has a different idea. The European wants to slow the wave down and bring the front through first. It also has a less developed low than the gfs weather model and takes the low to our south.
The in between 108 hour European which I can’t show you has a weak low in Northern Virginia Sunday night. It produces a swath of precipitation of .25 to .50 inches across Northern New Jersey. Cold air will be draining southward. The air might be just cold enough to produce a swath of 1 to 3 inch snows in an area from Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey and in the Hudson Valley north of route 84 as well as interior Connecticut with measuarable snow down to about Route 80 and Route 287. Again this would be just a cheap thrill so I will keep an eye on this. Even the late afternoon gfs ensembles take the low track further south. It is still a little early to get any clues from the NAM model on this but later tonight it will come into the European’s 96 hour time frame so we will revisit this later tonight.
Meanwhile cold air is working its way in tonight as temperatures fall. Some lake effect snows upstate are going to be dying out overnight and skies should clear out everywhere before too long. Temperatures are headed into the teens except low to mid 20s in warmer urban locations.
Cheap Thrill Alert Sunday Night Monday Morning Satellite & Radar Loops
Thursday looks good with plenty of sunshine with highs in the low to mid 30s for most of the area. This will be followed by a clear and cold Thursday night with lows in the teens and 20s. Friday begins with sunshine but clouds will arrive as a warm front approaches. That front might trigger some sprinkles or flurries Friday night. Friday’s highs will be in the 30s to near 40 and hold in the 30s overnight. Once the warm front goes by Saturday morning we should break out into some sunshine and temperatures will rise into the 50s and some southern areas in Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania might see upper 50s to near 60.
Sunday will depend on which model holds the upper hand. The GFS would extend the mild weather into Sunday until the front goes by Sunday night, while the European would take temperatures down into the low and middle 40s as cold air begins to move in faster. Once we figure out which model get this right, we can adjust the Sunday temperatures accordingly.
Cheap Thrill Alert Sunday Night Monday Morning VIDEOS
LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL VIDEO ANALYSIS
LATEST GFS MODEL VIDEO ANALYSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
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