Blocking Pattern Driving Models Insane
Blocking Pattern Driving Models Insane
If you have been following the soap opera that we have been seeing over the last several days you may have picked up on the rather unstable forecast for next week. This includes all the nonsense out there in social media land about impending snowstorms. This is exactly the reason why you can’t pay too much attention to the long range except in a general sense. Add to that a blocking pattern which weather models never handle well and you have a recipe for a real forecast mess in the long term. At least through Monday it seems pretty clear that 2 cold fronts will be moving through. The first one moves through tomorrow with some rain or showers late tonight into midday Thursday.
That front moves along and we dry out Thursday night followed by a nice day on Friday with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 50s. Then a second front comes through Saturday night with showers ahead of it late Saturday into very early Sunday morning.
After Monday things go in different directions. I’m leaning toward the European model idea of a third front approaching late Tuesday and Tuesday night with another shot of cold dry air for Wednesday and Thursday Thanksgiving day. The GFS has nothing like this as it actually has it warming up Wednesday and Thursday before a front approaches on Friday. Why the difference? Blocking in the North Atlantic continues to drive the models crazy in the long range with huge volatility on every run. Each run has the block in a different position and strength. Each model run changes the profile of the block which changes the profile of the weather going forward in the long range. I think the European model makes the most sense at this point.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS
GET JOE A CIGAR IF YOU LIKE!
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey
FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE
Weather App
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.
It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!