blocking driving

Blocking Pattern Driving Models Insane

Blocking Pattern Driving Models Insane

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Blocking Pattern Driving Models Insane

If you have been following the soap opera that we have been seeing over the last several days you may have picked up on the rather unstable forecast for next week. This includes all the nonsense out there in social media land about impending snowstorms. This is exactly the reason why you can’t pay too much attention to the long range except in a general sense. Add to that a blocking pattern which weather models never handle well and you have a recipe for a real forecast mess in the long term. At least through Monday it seems pretty clear that 2 cold fronts will be moving through. The first one moves through tomorrow with some rain or showers late tonight into midday Thursday.

blocking driving

 

That front moves along and we dry out Thursday night followed by a nice day on Friday with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 50s. Then a second front comes through Saturday night with showers ahead of it late Saturday into very early Sunday morning.

blocking driving

After Monday things go in different directions. I’m leaning toward the European model idea of a third front approaching late Tuesday and Tuesday night with another shot of cold dry air for Wednesday and Thursday Thanksgiving day. The GFS has nothing like this as it actually has it warming up Wednesday and Thursday before a front approaches on Friday. Why the difference? Blocking in the North Atlantic continues to drive the models crazy in the long range with huge volatility on every run. Each run has the block in a different position and strength. Each model run changes the profile of the block which changes the profile of the weather going forward in the long range. I think the European model makes the most sense at this point.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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