Blizzard Warning: Models Continue to Raise Estimates

Blizzard Warning: Models Continue to Raise Estimates

Which ever model you look at this afternoon be it the GFS or the NAM (ESPECIALLY THE NAM) snowfall estimates may need to go up. Certainly with regards to my snowfall forecast map we will finish on the higher end of estimates. Much of route 80 in New Jersey southward and all of Long Island will see 12 inches or more and there could be locally higher amounts to a foot and a half or more.

Blizzard Warning..SNOWFALL FORECAST

blizzard warning

The NAM has performed brilliantly as it was the only model to pick up on the rapidly expanding and developing area of snow. Global models seem to be slowly playing catch up on this. The late afternoon GFS continues to move toward the NAM model idea. The most difficult part of this forecast remains the northern areas. We are trying to determine where the sharp cut off of the snow is going to be.

Blizzard Warning..GFS MODEL FORECAST

GFS24

Blizzard Warning..NAM MODEL FORECAST

nam18

The nam is a little more tucked in and a little more west with the surface low. Both models show robust precipitation. So at this point its just a matter of watching the radar and counting the inches. The NAM lines up bands of heavy snow into the Northwestern areas so there is a risk that amounts need to be raised across the board especially north and west. All we can do is just watch and see how it goes.

BLIZZARD WARNING NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST

namsnow

BLIZZARD WARNING GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST

gfssnow

The NAM picks up on something for inland areas and I’m not sure if that is from lifting on a northeast wind. The GFS looks like the nam with about 1/2 the precip. Both models have a foot plus over a larger area. At this point it is time to just NOWCAST!!!

EUROPEAN/NAM/GFS VIDEO ANALYSIS

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

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Blizzard Warning GFS Model

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