ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

Blizzard 2016 has just left us and already models seem to be circling the wagons for the possibility of another storm along the east coast late this week. Now before we all jump off the deep end, there are some important differences with this weather system and Blizzard 2016. Also for young (and not so young) forecasters, the same forecast tools that worked the last time may not necessarily work this time. Right now we are probably in the same place we were last Monday with regards to yesterday’s storm. This means we are still at the point where we are still trying to figure out how the atmosphere is going to align or whether it will align at all.

Now I put up a European map from a week ago for Blizzard 2016 and then the map underneath is what we are looking at now.

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK ?

COMPARING TWO STORMS

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

Now you can see how different the upper air is for the set up late this week. The lead trough that approaches on Wednesday splits with a strong southern stream rough being left behind. All the models do this. Where they differ is what happens 2 days later. The European has the most bullish view where the second disturbance you see coming into the picture dropping out of Canada phases or attempts to phase with the southern system when it reaches the east coast.

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK EUROPEAN MODEL FRIDAY JAN 29 2016?

ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

Here is the European idea and that is the two systems attempt to phase. If that occurs then we have an east coast threat. At this stage its a big IF! Now at this stage of the game the global models are the most useful and the European continues to lead the way. We are not in the nams range at the moment so there is no point in looking at now although it seems to me that the look of the NAM suggests an unphased look and no real storm threat. HOWEVER..and this is VERY IMPORTANT. The NAM did better in the last case perhaps because Blizzard 2016 was a southern stream event. This one will have northern stream influence so perhaps the European handles the data from Canada and elsewhere better. Or perhaps it was just blind luck. Whatever the reason we will as always look at everything and figure out the puzzle. I would just be very cautious going forward making any conclusions one way or the other.

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ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?

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ANOTHER STORM THREAT LATE WEEK?




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