active weather pattern

Active Weather Pattern Developing Eastern US

Active Weather Pattern Developing Eastern US

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Active Weather Pattern Developing Eastern US

After a sixth consecutive day of great weather we are about to see weather conditions deteriorate as the weather pattern across North America changes in the next 2 weeks. We still have one more day of reasonable weather with clouds and some sunshine on Monday with highs in the 70s. After that a series of weather systems swinging out from the west will begin to have impact with the first Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong cold front heads our way and it will be very slow moving once it reaches the coast. This will set us up for a narrow slow moving band of heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.

GFS WEATHER MODEL TUESDAY OCTOBER 24

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NAM WEATHER MODEL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY

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Depending on how these bands of rain set up and how strong any thunderstorms are ahead of the cold front, there could be a generous 2 inch plus rainfall for much of the area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. The rain may take awhile to reach the coast on Tuesday where strong south winds will develop with gusts of 30-40 mph. The front may take all day Wednesday to clear the coastline so some showers are still likely especially from NYC eastward.

GFS FORECAST 2PM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY OCTOBER 26, 2017

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Thursday we will be behind the front as the first of several shots of cold air move in and out. Temperatures Thursday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s for highs with clouds and some sun. Friday looks dry and seasonal and Saturday we may warm up a bit as the next strong cold front approaches and this is where weather models get rather interesting for next weekend.

GFS WEATHER MODEL MONDAY OCTOBER 30 2017

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EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL MONDAY OCTOBER 30, 2017

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The European & GFS model both have troughing in the East developing next weekend into the last days of October. The difference in the two models is that the GFS has one phased trough that swings through. This would bring another strong cold front through with the threat for heavy rains next Sunday and Sunday night followed by colder air for Halloween and a few days beyond. The GFS develops a tropical system in the NW Caribbean and rides it east northeast into the Atlantic.

EUROPEAN SURFACE FORECAST MONDAY OCTOBER 30 2017

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The European however is more complicated. The trough is unphased with a strong southern stream  system. This then gets complicated further on the European as it develops low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean (possibly tropical?) and then rides it up the Eastern Seaboard as a heavy rain and wind event late Monday into Tuesday. Either way it means a widespread rainfall but clearly the European’s view of this is far more complex. At the very least this pattern change means opportunities for substantial rainfalls in the next couple of weeks. Temperatures will be swinging back and forth as cold fronts come and go. Clearly more volatile times are ahead. With pressures low in the Caribbean the possibility of some sort of tropical influence in all of this exists.

 

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