There is a good shot that we could get 2 rain events this week and the second one could be a noreaster. The first for Tuesday night into Wednesday looks like it is going to happen. All the model seem to have the same idea with the approaching cold front moving through and a wave developing on it. The Canadian has the more outrageous look to it in that it seems to keep wanting to make these tropical lows and has them running around in one fashion or other. Frankly it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me though it has the same idea as the others in terms of rain.
The GFS to me has the most sensible look to it and I’m going to go with this idea with Rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that may gradually taper off later in the day Wednesday or Wednesday evening. The model is slow getting it out of the way. This could be a 1 to 2 inch general rainfall for everyone before the wave goes by and the front manages to sink to the south.
Now comes the forecast problem for the end of the week. The trough to our west along 90 West remains and you can see there is a second arm in the northern jet stream that is swinging around. The question is whether that trough in the upper midwest swings and forces the lead trough to be energized and “cut off” or separate from the main band of jet stream winds.
I’m going to jump now to 126 hours valid Friday night and you can see what the GFS does here as it cuts off the upper feature underneath a large blocking high that develops from Hudson Bay Eastward to New Foundland. This set up would produce nor’easter conditions beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.
Now we should point out that the European is a little different. Both models drop a strong disturbance southward into Eastern Canada but the difference is that the GFS swings that straight east and it never gets involved with what is going on across the Eastern US. The European instead drops it straight south which would produce a coastal low that winds up going out to the east.
The biggest difference is what is north of New York State when you compare the 2 models. The trough axis on the European is much further east and the entire pressure pattern across Southeastern Canada is completely different. The Canadian favors the GFS but the surface again is ridiculous because it keeps wanting to make all these tropical like lows so im tossing it in terms of the specifics though it has the general GFS idea.
Needless to say there is still some doubt about how the late week evolves. If the GFS/Canadian are correct then get ready for noreaster conditions toward the end of the week with rain, wind, and coastal flooding. We will wait to see what the European does tonight and Monday before cinching it one way or the other.
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