Tropical Forecast






    Satelliute loops and Air Force recon reports clearly show that the potential tropical cyclone east of the Northern Windward/Southern Leeward Islands is now Tropical Storm Harvey. Convection continues to increase around the center with an impressive area of thunderstorms on the western side of the circulation. Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate over the islands this evening and tonight as Tropical Storm Harvey continues to move toward the west. storm free An examination of the wind reports from the aircraft show 40-45 knot flight level winds which would translate to 35-40 knot winds at the surface. The lowest pressure is 1003 millibars which is supportive of tropical storm strength. tropical storm harvey The graphic above is from Tropical Tidbits which is an amazing site for tropical storm coverage. This marks the path of the plane as it flew through the system. The bright green wind barbs are where the plane measured 40-45 knot winds. storm free ...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...   SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 55.8W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES   WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.   DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 55.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).   HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.   storm free The water vapor loop shows a strong upper low over the Bahamas that is moving westward at about the same speed as Tropical Storm Harvey. This could set up ideal conditions for strengthening once this system reaches the Central Caribbean in about two days. It will be interesting to see what happens to this system since the global weather models which did a horrible job with Hurricane Gert, really don't do much with this system at all. Track models suggest a track to the west or north of due west similar to the track of Hurricane Franklin. MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS  

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