EURO Discussion

  • Long Range Weather Show No Heatwaves Next 2 Weeks


    Long Range Weather Show No Heatwaves Next 2 Weeks

    Long Range Weather Show No Heatwaves Next 2 Weeks

    The current 3 day heatwave will end on Tuesday as a backdoor cold front moves through. This is the second 3 day stretch of 90 degrees or higher we have seen with one in May and now one in June. If the long range is even close to being correct this will be the last 3 day stretch of 90 degree plus weather we will see over the next 2 weeks. At that point it brings us to the last week of June. Yes there could be the odd day or 2 here and there where temperatures could get very warm or even hot. However the upper air pattern setting up across the United States is one where weather systems move along and one wihere the jet stream takes a dip in the Eastern United States putting it south of normal. The result is that it can't get hot for too long.

    LONG RANGE WEATHER GFS JET STREAM MONDAY 6/19/2017

    long range weather I'm jumping ahead here to early next week. Before that we have this backdoor cold front that cools it off for the rest of the week and then the approaching trough and cold front bringing an increasing chance for showers Friday through Sunday. When we look at the upper air GFS forecast (and other models are on the same page) we can see a rather strong complex jet stream coming out of Canada sandwiched in between a ridge offshore in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific.

    LONG RANGE WEATHER GFS JET STREAM FORECAST JUNE 20 2017

    long range weather Going deeper into next week the trough in the East actually gets even stronger with strong ridges built on either side. Again this would argue against hot weather developing and in fact would suggest a cool wet pattern could be in the offing. Specifics are difficult to pinpoint at this stage of the game. A pattern like this would produce near to below average temperatures through much if not all of next week.

    TROPICS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE

    We have indicated that all three major global models are pointing to some sort of tropical development in the NW Caribbean/SW Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week and this idea continues today. None of the models at this point are suggesting anything huge here and we continue to view this with a bit of skepticism mainly because we are still 7 days out.   The European & GFS model show lower pressures in the SW Gulf of Mexico/NW Caribbean and a somewhat favorable upper air pattern for development. Models today shifted a bit south of previous runs and for now keep this well south and not a US problem.

    LONG RANGE WEATHER EUROPEAN TUESDAY JUNE 20TH

    long range weather

    LONG RANGE WEATHER GFS TUESDAY JUNE 20TH

    long range weather For now we will just continue to watch and wait on this. The Canadian model is more aggressive and further north with this...but then again the Canadian model is always more aggressive and further north with just about everything so we will lay that model aside for the time being.

    MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

    GET JOE A CIGAR IF YOU LIKE!

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