TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING EAST OF BAHAMAS
Latest satellite pictures show that disturbed weather east of the Bahamas continues to become better organized and there is evidence now of a low level circulation developing which means that a tropical depression may form here overnight or on Sunday. You can see on the loop clouds definitely circulating around on the north side as convection continues to increase. The area is moving norrthwestward and will pass east of the Bahamas with no threat there even if it does develop.
This tropical wave has been with us for well over a week now and this is the same system that some global models developed into a hurricane 10 days ago. You can clearly see that the outcome was much different than modeled. This is why we can’t put too much emphasis on what the models do with tropical storms in the long range.
On the wider satellite views a strong tropical wave has emerged off the African coast and is now southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving westward. Issues with dry air remain as shown on the water vapor loop below. There is also an upper air storm in the Central Atlantic but it appears that least the winds aloft may be favorable. This storm may be too far north to produce hostile wind conditions aloft to the south where the tropical wave lies.
This may be another test of the GFS in how it handles tropical systems as it develops this into a tropical storm by late Wednesday. We shall see.
If the system off the East Coast does develop it will turn northward and then northeastward. It is no threat to land.
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