rain threat

Rain Threat Friday Saturday Onshore Flow Again?

Rain Threat Friday Saturday Onshore Flow Again?

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Rain Threat Friday Saturday Onshore Flow Again?

The last 2 days were the second trip into an onshore flow and we can see what an northeast wind and a little New England air can do this time of year. Yesterday we could not get out of the 60s in many areas except for South Jersey & Much of the eastern half of Pennsylvanai which saw 80s and more heavy rain. Today temperatures are struggling again with lots of clouds and some scattered showers. Southeast Pennsylvania westward are seeing some sunshine however.  At least Wednesday and most of Thursday should be nice and sunny. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to near 80 Wednesday and we will reach into the 80s Thursday. The next cold front approaches Thursday night with a shower or thunderstorm. This appears to be the easy part of the forecast.

rain threat Friday

 

rain threat

The forecast problem comes for Friday & Saturday as models are showing different outcomes for the next trough to move into the Eastern US. The NAM, Canadian, and to some extent the European model would argue for a stronger upper air disturbance dropping to the coast. This will cause the front to stall and a wave to develop. The outcome is damp rainy conditions Friday into Saturday. The GFS shows a much weaker system which would argue that once the front passes through early Friday it will continue to drop southward creating some clearing of skies. The front hangs close by with another wave moving up and getting close for Saturday.

NAM MODEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING CLICK TO ANIMATE

rain threat

 

Given what we have just seen, we would lean to the idea of a repeat performance though the GFS suggests some caution here. Obviously if the NAM is correct you can expect another couple of fairly miserable days with temperatures in the cool 60s and 70s while the GFS would be a bit more promising from the standpoint of temperatures and sky conditions though this is going to be another push of dry air that comes in for Friday and much of the weekend.  The aggressive models would also be big rain producers with a couple of inches of rain likely with the GFS showing much less. Many model runs to go on this. We will see what the trends are later today and on Wednesday.

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