hurricane matthew

Hurricane Matthew Landfall & Loop

Hurricane Matthew Landfall & Loop

Hurricane Matthew Landfall & Loop

Overnight Hurricane Matthew began a strengthening trend that has taken the central pressure down by some 18 millibars. Winds have increased to 125 mph and Hurricane Matthew is close to returning to category 4 status. Weather conditions will deteriorate over South Coastal Florida later today.

Hurricane Matthew Landfall & Loop

Weather Models overnight all orchestrate Hurricane Matthew making land fall on the Florida Coast north of Palm Beach near the Daytona Beach/Cape Canaveral vicinity sometime overnight into Friday morning as either a category 3 or possibly even a category 4. From there Matthew moves up the coast and then emerges offshore near Jacksonville Florida, probably as a category 2 storm as some weakening could occur with the center just inland. However since it will be barely inland and most of the circulation will be over water, hurricane conditions are likely up and down the coast.

HURRICANE MATTHEW LANDFALL AND LOOP

GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane matthew

HURRICANE MATTHEW LANDFALL AND LOOP

GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE

gfsgif1

Once it moves offshore both the European model and GFS weather models orchestrate their loops. The GFS model shows a clockwise tight loop that takes Matthew back over the Bahamas and eventually back into South Florida early next week.

HURRICANE MATTHEW LANDFALL AND LOOP

GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE

hurricane matthew

It does weaken to a tropical storm due to upwelling of the the ocean. This will cool water temperatures by at least several degrees. The European model does the same loop but does not get Matthew back as far west and leaves Matthew just offshore Florida before pulling it away to the northeast.

hurricane matthew

The other issue through all of this is Tropical Storm Nicole which is almost a hurricane this morning. It is acting as a block to the east to prevent Matthew from moving away off the Carolina coast. As long as Nicole is in the picture and the trough moving off the east coast remains weak, the loop back over the weekend into next week is quite likely to occur. This may mean some very heavy rains and flooding for Florida for a long period of time regardless of which model is correct.

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