Hurricane Matthew Forecast Scenarios

Hurricane Matthew Forecast Scenarios


 HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT

FROM DEERFIELD BEACH…FLORIDA TO
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MIDDLE  & UPPER FLORIDA KEYS

The eye of Hurricane Matthew has made landfall this morning over Western Haiti. Even though the circulation is being distorted somewhat by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, Hurricane Matthew remains a formidable presence. The hurricane will continue moving northward and should soon begin a westward shift toward Eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Watches have now been extended northward to include parts of the Florida east coast. Watches will likely be extended northward over the next few days to include all of the Carolinas.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OVER
THE GULF OF GONAVE AND IS HEADING FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Deerfield Beach, Florida to
the Volusia/Brevard county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in
the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including
Lake Okeechobee

The government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and
New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti
* Seven Mile Bridge to south of Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
in the Gulf of Gonave near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 74.3 West.
Matthew is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). On this
track the eye of Matthew will move over the Windward Passage and
eastern Cuba today.  A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew
is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern
Bahamas Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

Track and character will determine what happens up here. Lets look at some possibilities of what you might expect depending on track

IF HURRICANE MATTHEW TRACKS OFFSHORE TO 40N 70W

hurricane matthew

If Hurricane Matthew moves northeastward as some global models (but not all) suggest, then we would experience noreaster like conditions for about 12 to 18 hours with strong northeast winds and heavy rains. Coastal flooding would occur but I think in this case given the moon phase would mean that it would most likely not be severe. Moderate to pockets of major coastal flooding would be expected. Winds would be to gale force with some higher gusts along coastal areas likely.

IF HURRICANE MATTHEW TAKES A SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TRACK THAT INVOLVES A LANDFALL

hurricane matthew

This track is probably the most worrisome and probably the most difficult one to predict. It would depend on the transition to a post tropical hurricane or tropical storm and how strong it is. Some models would suggest sustained winds of hurricane force  for coastal areas of New Jersey and Long Island. Heavy rains are likely and they would gradually shift to north and west of the actual center of low pressure. Tidal flooding would be more extensive though again the fact that the moon is in the first quarter phase would counter act that to some degree. Also the fact that the track comes from the southwest instead of the southeast would make a big difference for New Jersey. In fact the winds would eventually turn north along the New Jersey coast. Landfall from off the ocean into New Jersey seems unlikely. Landfall over Long Island from the south or south southwest is a possibility. Also we need to watch the onshore this week to see how high the waters are going into Saturday as a clue for Sunday

IF HURRICANE MATTHEW TAKES A TRACK JUST INLAND OF THE COAST

hurricane matthew

If this happens there are several possibilites. First off if Hurricane Matthew were to track inland all the way up the coast, it is likely that the wind field would be less formidable then the other two options although there would still be gales to deal with. This would also turn the wind direction more southeast and south until the storm passes. After an initial surge of rain the heaviest rain would shift north and west of the low center. Coastal flooding would occur but would not be as severe as a landfalling system. Of all three possibilities this one is probably the least strongest (relatively speaking) of the three in terms of impact.

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