Tropical Storm Matthew & GFS Model Overnight
Tropical Storm Matthew & GFS Model Overnight
Tropical Storm Matthew has grown into a large tropical storm with a large diameter. It continues to move toward the west into the Eastern Caribbean sea. Normally the Eastern Caribbean is not a favorable place for development due to a number of factors however Tropical Storm Matthew is holding its own quite well. Latest air force reconnaissance aircraft reported flight level winds of over 70 knots in several areas. This is a sign of a tropical storm continuing to get better organized.
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016 ...LARGE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 63.1W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 63.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move away from the Windward Islands tonight, and be over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Matthew is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) primarily to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands within the warning area. These condition should begin to subside during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba beginning late Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao through Friday.
The wider water vapor loop below shows a better picture of the environment surrounding Tropical Storm Matthew. The dark brown spots that show up in small patches to the west of Matthew are pockets of dry air however those pockets continue to shrink over time. There is some shearing to the west as well but this has diminished and is forecast to continue to weaken over the next 2 days. This factor plus very warm water temperatures will put Tropical Storm Matthew in an area that is favorable for gradual strengthening. Matthew should become a hurricane over the next few days.
The new GFS model shows Matthew making a turn to the northwest around 75 degrees west and making its way toward Western Cuba.
The GFS model has been remarkably consistent with this idea for many days and is in line with other models which are doing the same thing. Once it crosses Western Cuba on Monday it emerges in the Southern Bahamas.
At this point Matthew is a minimal hurricane on the GFS model and through Tuesday morning at least it does not strengthen it beyond a category 1 hurricane. This may or may not be correct given what appear to be favorable conditions for strengthening. Global weather models have not done well with intensity this hurricane season though the GFS has model has performed better than others.
One major and important development in the longer term picture regarding Matthew is the trough in the Plains. Earlier model runs had this trough lifting northeastward and picking Mathew up along the East Coast. However tonight’s model run shows a new system moving into the Pacific northwest. This creates a different scenario in the upper air pattern. Instead of lifting it up along the coast, the progressive nature of the trough (moving west to east) acts as a “kicker” to move it along and turn it northeastward off the Carolinas and it heads out to sea. We will have to see whether this is a new wrinkle in all this and whether the next several model runs continue this trend. Since this is in the time frame beyond day 7, it is not conclusive by any means. We will see what the European model and other models do with all this later this morning.
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