GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM
GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM EASTERN CARIBBEAN
When we look at the satellite loop overnight we see that the strong tropical wave continues to look very well defined and the slow organization process continues. No doubt we see a rather well developed mid level circulation and it is likely that a low level center will soon close off. An Air Force plane will investigate the area Wednesday morning to see if a tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed.
Movement continues to be to the west or slightly north of due west at 20 mph or so and tropical storm force winds will spread over the Northern Windward & Southern Leeward Islands on Wednesday. The GFS model tonight remains pretty consistent with slowly developing the system as it begins its move across the Eastern Caribbean taking it north of Aruba & Curacao on Thursday & Friday.
GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY MORNING
GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY EVENING 8PM
The overnight run is extremely consistent with prior runs. It is at the point you see above at 8pm that the GFS like the European and other models did during the day Tuesday turn the storm to the north. The influence of the deep upper air low along the east coast is creating a weakness for this storm to turn northward. Almost all the hurricane models on the spaghetti plots are remarkably about the same
GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM SPAGHETTI PLOTS
It is beyond this timeframe that models begin to diverge in both west and east directions and this will be dependent on just how strong this system gets while it is in the Central Caribbean. The stronger it is, the earlier the turn to the north will occur. Most cluster the storm in the Bahamas from west to east early next week.
GFS MODEL TROPICAL STORM UPPER AIR WEDNESDAY 1PM 10/05/2016
The model continues to shift to the left with the last 4 runs. It is also very consistent with the overall picture that it paints along the east coast. The big question going forward from here will be how does the trough in the plains impact this tropical system as it continues to move northward. We will wait to see what the European model has to say later this morning.
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