Tropical Depression Could Form Soon
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM SOON
MODELS FORECAST A TROPICAL STORM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN
The satellite loop above shows the well defined tropical wave which continues to slowly get better organized. There appears to be the beginnings of a low level circulation developing as the wave continues to move to the west. The wave is currently along 10 degrees north so it is pretty far to the south. The wave is less than 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. Weather models are bullish on development into a tropical depression and then a Tropical Storm over the next several days.
On the wider satellite view you can see that this is a very large system embedded in a moist layer of air that exists south of 15 degrees north. Dry air is to the north however the moist shield is preventing that dry air from getting pulled further south. Conditions are quite favorable for this system to develop as it moves west. Wind shear appears minimal at this point. The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm to 70 percent over the next 2 days and 90 percent over the next 5 days.
We continue to look at the afternoon runs of weather models which have been exceptionally volatile over the last week regarding the pattern across North America. This will impact what ultimately happens to this tropical system once it moves into the Eastern Caribbean. We will be posting more on this later today.
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