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Tropical Storm Karl & Lisa Plus Long Range Outlook

Tropical Storm Karl & Lisa Plus Long Range Outlook

Tropical Storm Karl & Lisa Plus Long Range Outlook

When we look at the long range pattern going into the weekend there really isn’t too much that is different. The strengthening trough and upper air storm in Northeastern Canada drives down cool air into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states this weekend. The warm finish to summer comes to an with Friday being the last day of temperatures in the 80s, at least for this current stretch.

GFS MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY

TROPICAL STORM KARL MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST

tropical storm

EURO MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY

BOTH WEATHER MODELS VERY SIMILAR

tropical storm

Over the last number of months the pattern has been pretty much dominated by a ridge in the east and the occasional flexing of northern jet stream muscle to bring down a shot of dry air for a day or two. This flexing is stronger than the others which makes sense since we are now deep into the month of September. The strengthening trough will swing Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Karl northeastward toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm Lisa basically winds up getting absorbed by Karl’s circulation and that pretty much wraps up the 11th and 12th tropical storms of the season.

tropical storm

Up until recently the ridge would flip right back up but the difference this time is that a rather deep upper air storm drops into the Plains early next week. This puts 2 major players on the map with a deep upper air storm near Nova Scotia and deep upper air storm in Eastern South Dakota with a narrow ridge in the middle. The question going into the second half of this week is what happens to that upper air storm to the west. The prior two runs of the GFS wanted to bring this system bodily eastward which would create an opportunity for several days of rain. However the new gfs model run actually retrogrades this northwestward and allows a big upper ridge to once again build in the east! If this were to happen it could create a strong onshore flow but any rain would be kept well to the west.

tropical storm

How that upper low reacts to all this will be key to whether this could be a nice set up for much needed rain over a period of several days or just another shot of rain for a day or so and then it goes out.  This is such a large scale feature that models could be having a difficult time with this. But there is no denying that the east coast ridge is very dominant and does not want to go away easily.

tropical storm

The European model handles this much differently as it keeps the upper air storm to the west well developed. It also has the system to the east much more dominant in the overall pattern picture. With this look we are pinned in between. The upper air storm to the east will keep things on the cool side through much of the week.

tropical storm

If the European model is correct, what we don’t want to see here is any kind of tropical system in the Northwest Caribbean or Southeast Gulf of Mexico because it does set up a more favorable upper air pattern for a storm in the east. This would be particularly true if the upper low begins to swing eastward into the Ohio Valley. No storm is indicated on the European run today. An interesting weather pattern is setting up ahead and we will be watching carefully and closely.

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